The aftershocks have barely ended; Dr Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the respected finance minister, has had to go, falling on her own sword as the leadership looks for scapegoats for a series of mis-steps of their own doing, as well as wider forces at play.
The proximate trigger for the unrest may have been the 50 million rupiah (S$3,900) monthly housing allowance initiated for MPs (many of them owned good homes already), and mobs angered by the death of a Gojek rider struck down by a speeding police vehicle. But some would argue the problems date back longer, and even to before the current administration.
In truth, several streams fed the river of discontent that spilled out in Indonesia in September.
The squeeze
Viewed from the ground up, the most obvious is the economic squeeze.
Household budgets have shrunk. In August, the price of rice, Indonesia’s most widely consumed staple, was up 6.2 per cent from a year ago. There have been significant job losses in manufacturing. The Indonesian Fiber and Filament Yarn Producer Association reckons that the country shed a quarter-million jobs in textiles and apparel industries over the past two years, and this could worsen in 2025.
An estimated 10 million of Gen Zers are looking for work. Jobs created have been largely informal or in the gig economy, with little protection. Foreign direct investment flows have started to slide.
The Indonesian middle class had started to contract even before President Prabowo Subianto came to power and in most societies, unrest usually begins with this class before it spreads.
Against this backdrop, the ferment on the ground is unsurprising. But what has brought things to a tipping point is the self-perpetuating nature of Indonesian politics combined with the ostentatious display of wealth by a complacent elite.
Mr Prabowo came into office promising “efficiency”. Instead, he formed a bloated Cabinet – with 48 ministers and 55 vice-ministers. That is significantly more than Mr Joko Widodo’s initial Cabinet size of 34 ministers and 30 vice-ministers.
This generation of Indonesians, informed by TikTok, WhatsApp and other social media, grasp what is going on; a generous distribution of loaves and fishes to cap political dissent, preventing their concerns to surface in a normal and legitimate way.
When normal routes of expression are blocked, they take matters into their own hands and particularly against those they see as co-opted.
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The looting of National Democratic Party (NasDem) MP Ahmad Sahroni’s unoccupied home – jewellery and watches, and even the destruction of his sports car – suggests a herd instinct to even the score. NasDem, once contesting against Mr Prabowo, now supports the President.
Then there’s the discomfort with where the government is headed.
Under Mr Prabowo, shadows of Indonesia’s pre-1998 history have resurfaced. From whispered takeovers of private golf clubs for the military’s use on Saturdays – when the brass have their own golf course – to retired military men taking up key positions in various companies, there is a sense that Mr Prabowo is falling back upon the senior uniformed class that he knows best.
Some see in this a subtle attempt to cloak manoeuvres to amass power and influence with nationalism.
In November 2024, Minister for State-owned Enterprises Erick Thohir ordered that all offices of state-owned companies must play the Indonesia Raya anthem daily at 10am.
The military shadow over the Prabowo government is unmistakable even if rumours in Jakarta of a military-backed emergency rule are far-fetched.
Indonesians view their democracy as a hard-won prize. They do not want to backslide into the excessive centralisation that marked the Suharto era, of which Mr Prabowo was once a part.
A controversial programme
What of his economic management? And the welfare programmes that are seen as the building blocks for a second term in office?
It is tempting to take aim at his free school meals programme, as several commentators and mainstream economists have done. Without question, the outlay for this is not small at up to 335 trillion rupiah (S$26 billion), or almost 9 per cent of the entire government budget.
In my mind, to knock the programme on the basis of economics is to take an elitist view of things.
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Properly run, these meals can promote school enrolments, particularly of girls, improve class attendance, and provide vital protein critical to child development.
The problem is that the Prabowo government seems to have botched the implementation of the programme. Disbursements of funds have been slow. Anecdotal accounts of administrative chaos are abundant. And the few cases of food poisoning unhelpful. Falsehoods as well; one story that got wide circulation is that the steel food trays imported from China are coated with pork oil.
The result has been that goodwill the government should have earned on this account has curdled into dissent.
‘Mafia figures’
And as always, when matters are turning sour, all sorts of elements will try to capitalise. In Indonesia, the adjustment established interests have had to make to the new figures at the helm – licences for mining rights not automatically renewed is one example – suggests conflict within key interest groups.
The targeting of key figures including Dr Sri Mulyani by protesters, who clearly had been supplied precise addresses, suggests dark hands at play. Mr Prabowo himself has spoken of “mafia figures” fomenting unrest.
Indonesian soldiers standing guard outside the residence of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati in Jakarta, on Aug 31, 2025. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
The top-down perception? That seven identified interest groups were seen to be taking an extraordinary interest in the unrest. These apparently include a Cabinet figure, a small section of the armed forces, and even speculation about an external element – a key political leader in a South-east Asian nation close to the oil tycoon Mohammed Riza Chalid who is currently absconding from the law in Indonesia. Chalid is being probed in a $23 billion corruption case involving oil giant Pertamina.
Raised in the military culture, Mr Prabowo could have reacted harshly to the latest unrest. However, he has handled matters with restraint, lining up leaders of other parties beside him as he appealed for calm. His predecessor Joko Widodo has not been in public view though, and has stayed silent throughout the unrest.
The split with Joko Widodo
Mr Joko’s son is Mr Prabowo’s deputy, his appointment an obligation that Mr Prabowo kept in return for Mr Joko’s support for his presidency, which he successfully contested against a candidate from Mr Joko’s own PDI-P party.
The Jokowi-Prabowo relationship is wearing thin for a variety of reasons, including the arrest of one-time Jokowi Cabinet minister Nadiem Makarim. The billionaire founder of the GoJek ride-hailing and payments platform, Nadiem is suspected of corruption in the purchase of laptops for the government.
Vexingly for Mr Joko, Mr Prabowo’s welfare-oriented government has turned its attention away from the Nusantara new capital city project that he had promoted as his signature contribution to Indonesia.
Observers note that while Mr Joko had taken the salute in Nusantara on national day in 2024, Mr Prabowo chose to take the salute in the presidential palace in Jakarta in August 2025.
What’s more, even before the recent protests had entirely subsided, he dashed off to China to attend the Victory Day parade. There he received assurances about Chinese help to build an US$80 billion (S$102.6 billion) seawall primarily meant to protect people along the northern coast of Java, including Jakarta, as well as funds to build a high-speed rail linking Jakarta to Surabaya.
These are not the actions of a president who is committed to Nusantara but one more focused on the current capital.
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Mr Joko has no reason to look kindly on his successor.
Mr Prabowo, for his part, has plenty to think about. Though he himself has not been a target of the people’s anger, protests so early in his administration suggest some difficult choices ahead – for instance, whether to continue costly welfare or shift focus to job creation.
The new finance minister has plenty to think about as he settles into the job.
Ravi Velloor is senior columnist at The Straits Times.
