In reality, little changed. It was not until 2020 that Japan signed its first arms export deal. This was a contract worth US$100 million (S$133 million) for Mitsubishi Electric Corporation to supply advanced air surveillance radars to the Philippines. This remains an isolated case. Even a decade after the rule change, Japan still does not feature in the list of the world’s top 25 arms exporting countries.
Motivations
Japan’s government was certainly hopeful of developing a profitable industry, but export revenue was not the primary motivation. Instead, arms exports were viewed as bringing important security benefits.
In 1967, in response to pressure from the opposition Japan Socialist Party, then Prime Minister Eisaku Sato introduced guidelines which significantly limited the circumstances in which Japan could export weapons. This was upgraded to what amounted to a blanket ban in 1976.
During the subsequent decades, Japanese defence companies, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) and Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI), were able to produce weapons for only the Japan Self-Defence Forces. The result was strictly limited production volumes and high unit costs. Due to their isolation, Japanese firms also began to fall behind in developing the most technologically sophisticated weapons.
The ability to export weapons again was intended to expose Japanese firms to international competition and thus drive down costs and incentivise innovation. In other words, arms sales abroad would lead to better, cheaper weapons at home.
A further factor was military diplomacy since arms deals are an important means of strengthening security ties. This is a priority at a time when Japan is developing new security partnerships, including with Australia and India, to supplement the alliance with the United States.
South Korea provides an example of what Japan is trying to achieve. Between 2018 and 2022, South Korea’s arms exports grew by 74 per cent, making it the world’s ninth-largest arms exporter. President Yoon Suk-yeol has set the goal of reaching fourth place by 2027.
Mr Yoon has begun to promote the idea of “K-Defence”. The aim is to emulate the success of K-Pop and K-Drama. Just as BTS, the world’s biggest boy band, won over foreign audiences with their hit song Dynamite, so South Korean defence firms are conquering international markets with their own high explosives, not to mention tanks and fighter jets.
Pacifist instincts
The main reason Japan has failed to replicate South Korean success is lingering pacifism. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is in favour of expanding arms exports, but it has long governed in coalition with Komeito. This political party was founded in 1964 by members of Soka Gakkai, a religious movement that espouses Buddhism and pacifism.
Komeito remains a small party. It received only 12.38 per cent of votes in the general election of 2021. However, it exercises outsized influence on policy. This is because the LDP relies on Komeito to ensure comfortable election wins.
In Japan’s mixed electoral system, voters cast two ballots. One is for a named candidate in a single-seat district. The second is for a party under a system of proportional representation. Based on an informal vote swopping agreement, Komeito has traditionally supported LDP candidates running for single seats. In return, the LDP has encouraged its supporters to back Komeito in the party vote.
Thanks to this arrangement, the LDP achieves comfortable election wins. Komeito, in return, gains a seat in the Cabinet and influence over policy.
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This influence is evident in the case of the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a project between Japan, the United Kingdom and Italy to develop a next-generation fighter jet by 2035. The project is financially viable only if the resulting aircraft are available for export.
Although Japan ended the ban on arms exports in 2014, many restrictions remain. These rules need to be revised to permit the GCAP jet to be exported to countries that were not partners in the project. The LDP is in favour but Komeito has applied the brakes. Talks between the parties broke down in February as Komeito’s leader Natsuo Yamaguchi expressed concern that “proceeding on an unlimited basis would lead to all kinds of weapons being exported”.
Hesitant firms
Another obstacle is Japan’s own arms producers. Rather than champing at the bit to join the international competition, many remain hesitant.
Even for Japan’s largest defence companies, weapons production accounts for a small percentage of overall business. For MHI, arms sales make up only around 10 per cent of revenue. The temptation of some firms is therefore to reduce their involvement and focus on more profitable, less controversial areas.
Japanese companies are also held back by lack of experience in the cut-throat business of winning defence contracts. In 2016 a Japanese consortium was initially seen to be in pole position to supply 12 Soryu-class diesel-electric submarines to Australia. However, the Japanese companies were ultimately shoved aside by the sharp elbows of France’s DCNS. France, in turn, lost out in 2021 to the US-UK-backed Aukus deal to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.
When it comes to products, Japan does have some attractive systems. The Ukrainian government has, for instance, expressed interest in Japanese anti-drone technology.
However, too often Japanese military equipment is artisanal; that is, high quality, but produced in small batches at high cost. In this, it has something in common with Japan’s famed samurai swords. These are crafted with great skill and devotion yet are too valuable to be used for anything beyond decorative purposes.
An example is ShinMaywa’s US-2 search and rescue seaplane. Japan spent years trying to sell a dozen of these aircraft to India. Ultimately, however, New Delhi judged that they were too expensive.
This contrasts with South Korean defence firms that aim to offer value for money, instead of best-of-class technology.
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Arms for peace
Some Japanese remain queasy about their country becoming a major arms exporter on the grounds that weapons sales are seen as fuelling conflict. This is a noble sentiment, but it is sadly naive.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a case in point. If democracies do not have the capacity to supply partners with weapons, it does not serve the cause of peace. Rather, it undermines states’ ability to defend themselves against authoritarian aggressors.
Japan must also think of its own security. As Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has correctly noted, “Ukraine could be East Asia tomorrow”.
If major inter-state conflict in the region is to be avoided, Japan must deter potential aggressors by demonstrating that it has the capacity to defend itself and assist democratic partners during what could prove a long conflict. A strong Japanese arms industry, reinforced by international sales, is essential to this goal.
To this end, Japan’s government and arms firms alike should set aside the failures of the last decade and recommit to developing a successful J-Defence industry.
James D.J. Brown is professor of political science at Temple University Japan.
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