jp top notch svc

TOKYO – Dr Shingo Takashima was an aspiring doctor working towards his dream job at a top hospital in Kobe when he died, aged 26, on May 17, 2022.

His mother Junko, 61, found his lifeless body and a farewell note that read: “I’m all to be blamed. I’m so sorry to give you such pain... I’m at my limit and I have no choice.”

His suicide, which was judged by manpower authorities as karoshi (death by overwork), has become both a cautionary tale and a rallying call for change. Not only had he faced an uncompromising superior and worked 100 days straight without a single day off, but he was also found to have clocked 178, 169 and 207 overtime hours in the prior three months. To give some perspective: these figures are on top of the regular 40-hour work week – eight hours a day, five days a week works out to 160 hours a month.

The unrelenting work pressures, in particular the punishing overtime hours, that pushed Dr Takashima over the brink are a troubling feature of the Japanese healthcare system. A 2022 Japan Doctors’ Union survey found that one out of two respondents were concerned about the impact on their own health – an irony as their role is to restore the health of others; three in 10 doctors admitted to having entertained thoughts of death and suicide.

Doctors are joined by construction workers and truck drivers in clocking the longest working hours in Japan where, unsurprisingly, there has been a spate of tragedies across the three professions. The exceptionally smooth running of services for which Japan is renowned – and not just in these three sectors – is facing a reckoning as a result of rising demand and concurrent labour shortages. The practice of crushing overtime hours has kept the system going, but even that is hitting the buffers, and one is looming next month.

Overtime limits will kick in for the medical, construction and logistics industries from April, with errant employers facing fines of up to 300,000 yen (S$2,700) or jail of up to six months.

These are part of workplace reforms passed in 2018 following a spate of high-profile karoshi deaths.

The limits had first gone into effect in 2019 for large companies, and then in 2020 for small and medium-sized enterprises. The latest phase involving those in the medicine, construction and logistics sectors is happening only now, given their expected outsized impact on society.

The overtime cap is well-meaning, but questions remain on its effects. At heart, Japan has to ask itself: What price is it prepared to pay for its widely admired first-rate services?

Taken for granted

That the situation has come to be framed as a “2024 problem” speaks volumes of a country that has taken efficiency for granted: cheap round-the-clock medical care, same-day or next-day deliveries, and a breakneck pace of construction exemplified by how, in one remarkable case, a gaping sinkhole measuring 30m by 27m by 15m was filled in 48 hours.

Such supposed efficiencies have been built on back-breaking, unlimited overtime.

In medicine, there have long been far too few doctors to go around, and far too much bureaucracy. Japan’s 339,623 doctors mean there are 269 physicians per 100,000 people, which is lower than the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) average of 350 doctors per 100,000 people.

In construction, given tight and rigid project timelines, Japan’s 4.79 million construction workers often clock overtime.

The entire logistics industry, meanwhile, is built on 870,000 truckers who ply long distances over long hours. Road transport accounts for 90 per cent of freight in Japan.

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While the overtime caps come April look good on paper, the government has written into law a series of exceptions that reduce the impact of the changes.

For instance, under the new rules, construction workers can work up to 45 monthly overtime hours, capped at 360 annual overtime hours. However, the limit may be raised or scrapped under “exceptional circumstances”, such as natural disasters.

One such exceptional case may be the 2025 Osaka World Expo, whose organisers have sought to be excluded from the law as it is drastically behind schedule despite the opening date of April 13, 2025.

For truck drivers and doctors, the ceiling will be capped at 960 annual overtime hours or an average of 80 monthly overtime hours. But an allowance for more hours is being made for physicians in rural areas, which are already under-served in terms of services.

Will the caps help the people for which it is intended? Some say while it will go some way towards reducing overtime work, it is cutting things fine. The 80-hour monthly limit – setting aside exceptions – is no different from the so-called “karoshi line” – the point which Japan has designated as the threshold for death by overwork.

Hardly a panacea

But there is more to the overtime culture. One reason is Japan’s stagnant wages.

A low base pay for truck drivers and construction workers incentivises them to work more overtime to earn more money. Said Moody’s Analytics senior economist Stefan Angrick: “Overwork creates problems for individuals and society at large, including issues related to health. It also reduces the incentive for companies to invest in technology and automation.”

Many workers have said that if companies fail to raise wages accordingly to make up for the reduction in overtime pay, they will seek side hustles to make up for their lost income – which will defeat the very purpose of the law.

A 28-year-old truck driver told public broadcaster NHK in Fukuoka en route to Ishikawa Prefecture – 900km and at least a 10-hour drive away – that his take-home pay was up to 400,000 yen (S$3,600) a month. “I want to earn more, but my working hours will become shorter,” he said. “I might use my extra rest time to get another job.”

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In construction, civil engineering lecturer Kazuyoshi Tateyama of Ritsumeikan University sees the need to change a mindset that has turned work systems into victims of their own success. “Design was systemised, standards were established, and manuals were completed. And this allowed Japan to build high-quality infrastructure in a short period of time,” he said. “But this success formula also makes it difficult to transition.”

In medicine, the Labour Ministry has highlighted activities that are time-consuming but are not regarded as overtime. These “voluntary self-improvement” practices include the practice of surgical procedures as well as preparation and participation in academic conferences that are necessary for resident doctors who hope to become specialists – like the late Dr Takashima.

Dr Kenji Shibuya of The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research think-tank noted sardonically – and rightly – that the very future of Japan’s medical profession hinges on such critical activities that are diminished as “voluntary self-improvement”.

Yet even discounting such “voluntary” actions, a Health Ministry survey has shown that one in 10 doctors already works more than 1,860 overtime hours a year, while four in 10 put in more than 960 hours.

Finding solutions

Solving the “2024 problem” would, first and foremost, require consumers to manage expectations.

This means, notwithstanding the e-commerce boom, being prepared to pay a premium for urgent deliveries – or wait for their turn in line. They should also avoid late-night hospital visits for non-emergency cases that have come to be described as “konbini diagnoses”, so-named after convenience stores that provide round-the-clock services.

Meanwhile, given the crippling labour shortage, one fix would be to hire more women and foreign workers, especially in construction and logistics. While it has traditionally been difficult to attract women, the labour shortage means a fundamental rethink of gender stereotypes is required.

In construction, women already account for three in 10 workers. While the percentage is paltry in logistics – 2.5 per cent, or about 20,000 truckers are women – Transport Ministry data shows that 134,000 women have a heavy vehicle licence. There is already at least one logistics company with all-female drivers: the Fukui City-based Heartful, which operates 22 vehicles.

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Japan already allows foreign workers in construction under its blue-collar skilled worker visa, which it is looking to expand to cover the road transportation sector.

The medical profession faces other hurdles. Foreigners would require a higher level of language proficiency. As for women, who account for 17.4 per cent of doctors, sexism continues to be rife. Top medical schools have recently been found to have systematically rigged entrance exams to make it harder for women to qualify, given the historically high female attrition rate.

Yet another urgent step would be to drastically increase wages to make blue-collar jobs more appealing and ensure workers do not end up worse off than before.

A third critical element is innovation. In logistics, an NX Research Institute study has found that if nothing is done, capacity will decline by 400 million tonnes – or 14.2 per cent – in 2024 and 940 million tonnes – or 34.1 per cent – by 2030 from 2019 levels.

This would effectively upend life as Japanese residents know it, impacting everything from the delivery of fresh produce to markets and the stocking of shelves at convenience stores, to the supply of parts to factories and same- or next-day deliveries to homes.

Japan is looking at expanding freight delivery through ships and trains – including the shinkansen bullet train – as well as drones and robots.

To ensure truck drivers get to their destinations faster, the government is even mooting raising the highway speed limit for large trucks to 100kmh from 80kmh.

Rivals are even joining hands to reduce duplication of effort and improve efficiency, with home appliance makers Sony and Hitachi, as well as paper manufacturers Daio and Hokuetsu, working together on customer delivery.

Logistics facilities are also automating the loading and unloading process. Daiwa House Industry and NTT Communications have developed an unmanned logistics system to smooth operations and reduce hiccups that is said to reduce man-hours by 30 per cent.

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Elsewhere, drones, surveillance sensors, and remote-controlled equipment like excavators are being rolled out in construction, with the government looking into banning contracts with unrealistic timelines.

Hospitals are looking at “task-sharing” measures such as allowing doctors to delegate tasks such as the administration of intravenous fluids to trained nurses, and paperwork to medical clerks.

But Dr Shibuya, along with Dr Takashima’s bereaved family, is urging the Labour Ministry to implement stronger guidelines against excessive overtime in medicine, including a relook at what constitutes “voluntary self-improvement” given that unrested doctors are prone to diagnostic errors and other mistakes.

Criminal and civil lawsuits are pending against the 460-bed Konan Medical Centre, which has refused to acknowledge culpability by arguing that Dr Takashima had put in 30.5 hours of overtime – rather than 207 hours – in the month before his death.

“Doctors are neither Superman nor robots,” Mrs Takashima said, adding: “Would it be OK if a pilot flies a plane on 200 hours of overtime a month?”

Helplines

Mental well-being

Institute of Mental Health’s Mental Health Helpline: 6389-2222 (24 hours)

Samaritans of Singapore: 1-767 (24 hours) / 9151 1767 (24 hours CareText via WhatsApp)

Singapore Association for Mental Health: 1800-283-7019

Silver Ribbon Singapore: 6386-1928

Tinkle Friend: 1800-274-4788 

Chat, Centre of Excellence for Youth Mental Health: 6493-6500/1

Women’s Helpline (Aware): 1800-777-5555 (weekdays, 10am to 6pm)

Aware’s Sexual Assault Care Centre: 6779-0282 (weekdays, 10am to 6pm)

National Anti-Violence and Sexual Harassment Helpline: 1800-777-0000

Counselling

TOUCHline (Counselling): 1800-377-2252

TOUCH Care Line (for seniors, caregivers): 6804-6555

Care Corner Counselling Centre: 6353-1180

Counselling and Care Centre: 6536-6366

Online resources

mindline.sg

eC2.sg

www.tinklefriend.sg

www.chat.mentalhealth.sg

carey.carecorner.org.sg (for those aged 13 to 25)

limitless.sg/talk (for those aged 12 to 25)

elite indians

All of India was transfixed, as February turned to March, by the spectacle of Anant Ambani’s pre-wedding celebrations in Jamnagar, an unlovely industrial town in western India. Mr Ambani is the son of Mr Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man and boss of Reliance, a giant conglomerate. Mr Bill Gates, Mr Mark Zuckerberg and Rihanna turned up, as did hordes of Indian business tycoons, cricket legends and Bollywood A-listers. The government temporarily converted the local domestic airport into an international one. For hundreds of millions of Indians following the lavish proceedings on TV, social media and in the papers, the festivities stood as shorthand for the tastes and power of India’s rich.

The Ambanis and their fellow plutocrats are household names in India. But they are not representative of India’s wealthy. Billionaires, almost by definition, are a select few. According to Forbes, a compiler of lists, there are just 186 of them in India. Far more consequential to – and representative of – India’s economic story are the legions of dollar millionaires, whose ranks are expanding year by year. They have an outsized influence, relative to their numbers, on patterns of consumption, investment and growth. They tend not to make headlines or advertise their wealth.

There is no fixed definition of “rich” used by the businesses that cater to them. But a commonly accepted threshold for being a “high net-worth individual” is possession of net assets of US$1 million (S$1.3 million) or more. This measure includes the value of primary homes, which could inflate numbers by counting someone who works for a modest wage but inherits a large seafront flat in Mumbai – US$1 million buys 1,100 sq ft of prime property in the city. It does not account for those who hold illicit cash, depressing the real figure. Experts assume that these things cancel each other out to provide a decent picture of a country’s wealthy.

By that definition, India had around 850,000 dollar millionaires in 2022, a net addition of 473,000 from a decade earlier, according to research by Credit Suisse, a Swiss bank. Between 2012 and 2022, the number of dollar millionaires grew at an annual rate of 8.5 per cent, outpacing average gross domestic product growth of 5.6 per cent. The economy is rebounding even more strongly now. As a result, wealth managers expect the number of dollar millionaires to expand by 15 per cent to 20 per cent per year.

These are the new rich. No data sets exist delineating the demographics of this cohort. But it is possible to draw broad trends from the people who manage their money. One unifying theme emerges: India’s new rich are nothing like the old.

First, they are more spread out. No longer do Indians need to live in top-tier cities like Mumbai, Delhi or Bangalore to get loaded. Mr Jaideep Hansraj, who ran wealth management at Kotak Mahindra, a big bank, for 15 years and now heads the securities business, says the surge in investors from small cities is phenomenal. They come from “Indore or Bhopal or Lucknow or Kanpur. I mean… Bareilly. It completely bamboozles me”, he says, referring to the sorts of cities an earlier generation of bankers would have sneered at. Mr Rakesh Singh of HDFC, India’s biggest bank by market capitalisation, says he has seen half-million-dollar investments coming from places like Jorhat in Assam, which most Indians would struggle to locate on a map.

Driving this geographic diversification of wealth is India’s improving physical infrastructure. This has lowered transport costs and sped up industrial shipments. It includes a big expansion in air connectivity, the spread of high-speed Internet and investment incentives from state governments keen to grab a piece of India’s growing economy. Wealth managers, too, are expanding their operations to serve customers where they are.

A second change is in the average age of the loaded. Where India’s rich might once have had a median age above 50, 40- and 30-something millionaires are now common. Some have benefited from government land acquisition for infrastructure projects, reaping big sums from previously unproductive holdings. Many are first-generation businessmen making consumer staples such as wafers (potatoes, not silicon), clothes or pappadums, or unsexy but essential goods necessary for a growing economy, such as rebar or ball bearings. A huge chunk are salaried professionals with company stock options or prudent personal investments. These are first-generation millionaires with “strong middle-class values”, says Mr Chethan Shenoy of Anand Rathi Wealth, which manages US$6.6 billion for nearly 10,000 clients.

The third major shift is in what the new rich do with their riches, in terms of both investment and consumption. They are much more comfortable with capital markets than their parents. “Earlier I could go and have one standard conversation with 90 per cent of my clients,” says Mr Nitin Chengappa, who heads private banking at Standard Chartered, an international bank. Today, “diversification is the key. It’s not just mutual funds. It’s private equity, social causes, venture capital, what can I do in listed (companies), what can I do in non-listed?”. To be sure, the rich still buy plenty of gold and second homes, in India and abroad. But their interest in markets and their appetite for risk has increased, too.

That does not mean they shy away from consumption. Foreign holidays are a common indulgence, as are lavish weddings and fancy cars. (Mercedes expects India to become its third-biggest market outside Germany in three years, up from fifth.) European luxury brands and hotels are an increasingly common sight in India’s cities, and new entrants are rushing in. In 2023, Dior held a show in Mumbai, and in 2022, the Swiss watch industry enjoyed a record year for exports to India.

Tata, a big Indian conglomerate, has seen robust growth in its luxury goods and five-star hotel businesses, especially from smaller cities. It is due to open 25 hotels in 2024, many of them high-end. An international airport due to open in Mumbai in 2025 will have a fifth of its parking spots reserved for private jets.

Two risks could stall the growth of India’s new class of wealthy. The first is political, regulatory or tax changes. Risk-taking in investment and free-spending consumption are driven by confidence among the rich that they will only get richer. Political instability could prompt a retreat to safer investments and lower spending. And although they are mostly immune to domestic inflation, they are particularly sensitive to changes in taxation.

The other risk is that the rich might flee. Henley and Partners, a high-end immigration firm, reckons that 7,500 Indian millionaires moved abroad in 2022. Many more have quietly acquired second homes in Dubai, London or Singapore, as well as the right to move there as a way of keeping their options open. Most hope to send their children to foreign universities. Professionals with international firms are also highly mobile, tempted by higher quality of life, better schooling for their children and a cleaner environment.

India’s new rich, like the previous elite, are a patriotic group. Many are keen to give back and help improve the lives of other Indians – while also having a good time. But even as they change, they would like India to change too. As one banker puts it: “As rich as you get, you cannot do anything about the pollution.” © 2024 THE ECONOMIST NEWSPAPER LIMITED. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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jp in defencr

Ten years ago, in April 2014, then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe overturned Japan’s longstanding ban on arms exports and established a new agency to oversee this industry. Proponents were excited about Japanese companies’ potential to use their technological prowess to win market share. Critics thundered that Japan was becoming a “merchant of death state”.

In reality, little changed. It was not until 2020 that Japan signed its first arms export deal. This was a contract worth US$100 million (S$133 million) for Mitsubishi Electric Corporation to supply advanced air surveillance radars to the Philippines. This remains an isolated case. Even a decade after the rule change, Japan still does not feature in the list of the world’s top 25 arms exporting countries.

Motivations

Japan’s government was certainly hopeful of developing a profitable industry, but export revenue was not the primary motivation. Instead, arms exports were viewed as bringing important security benefits.

In 1967, in response to pressure from the opposition Japan Socialist Party, then Prime Minister Eisaku Sato introduced guidelines which significantly limited the circumstances in which Japan could export weapons. This was upgraded to what amounted to a blanket ban in 1976.

During the subsequent decades, Japanese defence companies, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) and Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI), were able to produce weapons for only the Japan Self-Defence Forces. The result was strictly limited production volumes and high unit costs. Due to their isolation, Japanese firms also began to fall behind in developing the most technologically sophisticated weapons.

The ability to export weapons again was intended to expose Japanese firms to international competition and thus drive down costs and incentivise innovation. In other words, arms sales abroad would lead to better, cheaper weapons at home.

A further factor was military diplomacy since arms deals are an important means of strengthening security ties. This is a priority at a time when Japan is developing new security partnerships, including with Australia and India, to supplement the alliance with the United States.

South Korea provides an example of what Japan is trying to achieve. Between 2018 and 2022, South Korea’s arms exports grew by 74 per cent, making it the world’s ninth-largest arms exporter. President Yoon Suk-yeol has set the goal of reaching fourth place by 2027.

Mr Yoon has begun to promote the idea of “K-Defence”. The aim is to emulate the success of K-Pop and K-Drama. Just as BTS, the world’s biggest boy band, won over foreign audiences with their hit song Dynamite, so South Korean defence firms are conquering international markets with their own high explosives, not to mention tanks and fighter jets.

Pacifist instincts

The main reason Japan has failed to replicate South Korean success is lingering pacifism. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is in favour of expanding arms exports, but it has long governed in coalition with Komeito. This political party was founded in 1964 by members of Soka Gakkai, a religious movement that espouses Buddhism and pacifism.

Komeito remains a small party. It received only 12.38 per cent of votes in the general election of 2021. However, it exercises outsized influence on policy. This is because the LDP relies on Komeito to ensure comfortable election wins.

In Japan’s mixed electoral system, voters cast two ballots. One is for a named candidate in a single-seat district. The second is for a party under a system of proportional representation. Based on an informal vote swopping agreement, Komeito has traditionally supported LDP candidates running for single seats. In return, the LDP has encouraged its supporters to back Komeito in the party vote.

Thanks to this arrangement, the LDP achieves comfortable election wins. Komeito, in return, gains a seat in the Cabinet and influence over policy.

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This influence is evident in the case of the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a project between Japan, the United Kingdom and Italy to develop a next-generation fighter jet by 2035. The project is financially viable only if the resulting aircraft are available for export.

Although Japan ended the ban on arms exports in 2014, many restrictions remain. These rules need to be revised to permit the GCAP jet to be exported to countries that were not partners in the project. The LDP is in favour but Komeito has applied the brakes. Talks between the parties broke down in February as Komeito’s leader Natsuo Yamaguchi expressed concern that “proceeding on an unlimited basis would lead to all kinds of weapons being exported”.

Hesitant firms

Another obstacle is Japan’s own arms producers. Rather than champing at the bit to join the international competition, many remain hesitant.

Even for Japan’s largest defence companies, weapons production accounts for a small percentage of overall business. For MHI, arms sales make up only around 10 per cent of revenue. The temptation of some firms is therefore to reduce their involvement and focus on more profitable, less controversial areas.

Japanese companies are also held back by lack of experience in the cut-throat business of winning defence contracts. In 2016 a Japanese consortium was initially seen to be in pole position to supply 12 Soryu-class diesel-electric submarines to Australia. However, the Japanese companies were ultimately shoved aside by the sharp elbows of France’s DCNS. France, in turn, lost out in 2021 to the US-UK-backed Aukus deal to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.

When it comes to products, Japan does have some attractive systems. The Ukrainian government has, for instance, expressed interest in Japanese anti-drone technology.

However, too often Japanese military equipment is artisanal; that is, high quality, but produced in small batches at high cost. In this, it has something in common with Japan’s famed samurai swords. These are crafted with great skill and devotion yet are too valuable to be used for anything beyond decorative purposes.

An example is ShinMaywa’s US-2 search and rescue seaplane. Japan spent years trying to sell a dozen of these aircraft to India. Ultimately, however, New Delhi judged that they were too expensive.

This contrasts with South Korean defence firms that aim to offer value for money, instead of best-of-class technology.

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Arms for peace

Some Japanese remain queasy about their country becoming a major arms exporter on the grounds that weapons sales are seen as fuelling conflict. This is a noble sentiment, but it is sadly naive.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a case in point. If democracies do not have the capacity to supply partners with weapons, it does not serve the cause of peace. Rather, it undermines states’ ability to defend themselves against authoritarian aggressors.

Japan must also think of its own security. As Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has correctly noted, “Ukraine could be East Asia tomorrow”.

If major inter-state conflict in the region is to be avoided, Japan must deter potential aggressors by demonstrating that it has the capacity to defend itself and assist democratic partners during what could prove a long conflict. A strong Japanese arms industry, reinforced by international sales, is essential to this goal.

To this end, Japan’s government and arms firms alike should set aside the failures of the last decade and recommit to developing a successful J-Defence industry.

James D.J. Brown is professor of political science at Temple University Japan.

malaysia in sg

Guess how many Malaysians working overseas are in Singapore.

About 1.13 million Malaysians who have migrated overseas – close to six in 10 – were residing in Singapore in 2022, according to Malaysia’s former human resources minister V. Sivakumar, up from 952,000 in 2019.

This is a sizeable proportion of a 33 million population, considering it does not include the vast number of Malaysians who cross the Causeway and Tuas Second Link each day to work in Singapore.

As with most developing countries, Malaysia grapples with the challenge of brain drain, where a country loses its highly qualified professionals to others.

The recent fall of the ringgit to historic lows may well serve to accelerate Malaysia’s brain drain to the Republic.

The currency hit a new low of 3.57 against the Singapore dollar on Feb 22. While it has since improved, analysts say its recent woes might push Malaysians to search for job opportunities elsewhere to earn money in a country with a stronger currency.

An exodus of talent happened in 1998 when economic turbulence triggered an outflow. However, the crisis proved Malaysians to be flexible and resilient. Many who moved overseas eventually returned with valuable skills and experiences. 

The ringgit has seen better days, having held steady at 3 to 3.5 against the US dollar for nine years after returning to the managed float system in July 2005.

External developments have accelerated its depreciation since 2014. A drop in crude oil prices, coupled with the reversal of US quantitative easing, led to a net capital outflow and sent the ringgit skydiving.

That year, Malaysia’s financial account went into deficit for seven consecutive quarters, triggering a rapid depreciation of the national currency by 42 per cent. The 1MDB scandal in mid-2015 further eroded confidence in the currency. 

Finding career opportunities in Singapore

Today pull factors, coupled with the free flow of information, may drive migration more than push factors. Back in 1998, people found it harder to find a job overseas as the Internet and digital communication were less advanced. Today, opportunities are broader and more accessible. 

Singapore’s proximity makes it a natural prime destination for Malaysians across a wide range of industries – from construction, services and banking to the high-tech sector. Add to that Singapore’s well-established infrastructure, high standard of living and competitive job market, and relocating can look pretty attractive. 

In that sense, the ringgit’s fluctuating fortunes are merely one small push factor.

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Singapore is looking like a decent option for a broad range of Malaysians spanning many industries and income brackets. A recent study by the Department of Statistics Malaysia, an agency under the Prime Minister’s Department, found that close to 40 per cent of Malaysians employed in Singapore are skilled workers, most aged 25 to 34, while another 35 per cent are semi-skilled. Notably, 24 per cent are in clerical support roles, and 20 per cent hold professional positions.

Most – slightly more than two-thirds – earn a monthly gross salary ranging from $1,500 to $3,599. Almost one in five – 18.5 per cent – earn between $3,600 and $9,999. And a notable 1.2 per cent receive $10,000 to $17,999. Nearly 0.2 per cent earn $18,000 and above.

The racial breakdown seems fairly balanced with about 46 per cent Chinese, 40 per cent Malay, and 11 per cent Indian.  

Almost one in two Malaysians employed in Singapore expressed a strong inclination to prolong their tenure by another six years. They cited as key driving forces a combination of promising job prospects, favourable working conditions, competitive salaries and the Singapore dollar’s advantageous exchange rate. 

The report raises questions about the state of Malaysia’s economic health. Growth is slowing and exports are contracting sharply, with knock-on impact on the workforce. While the ringgit was hit hard during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the current context, taking place amid a more globalised world and more mobile Malaysians, introduces a new set of challenges for Malaysia.

Finding social mobility in advanced countries

Singapore’s economic vibrancy is an attraction, but its ease of relocation and stable political environment are also major draws. For Malaysians, Singapore offers a cosmopolitan, yet familiar multicultural atmosphere that eases cultural assimilation. The feeling of security and the opportunities for higher incomes and career growth make an appealing case for a move.

For many Malaysians, what starts out as a strategic career move here can evolve into a permanent transfer to making their home here. 

Emigration appeals to Malaysians seeking social mobility. While Singapore stands out, data from the Malaysian Department of Statistics showed that other popular countries include Australia (15 per cent), the US (10 per cent) and the United Kingdom (5 per cent).

The Australian Census of Population in 2016 showed that a substantial 56 per cent of Malaysians there were gainfully employed, and an impressive 70 per cent have at least a bachelor’s degree. Most work in services, with healthcare and social assistance prominent subsectors. 

In the US, close to 80,000 Malaysians lived there as at 2019. Over 60 per cent hold a bachelor’s degree, and work in hospitality and services – including F&B, institutes of higher education and computer science. The American Community Survey also found that on average, Malaysian workers with a tertiary education there earn an annual income that is US$8,653 (S$11,533) more than the average worker in the US.   

Emigration appeals to Malaysians seeking social mobility, and the data from the Malaysian Department of Statistics showed that popular countries include Australia. ST PHOTO: KUA CHEE SIONG

A similar trend is present in Britain where about 38,000 Malaysians reside, with more than half having a tertiary degree, according to the UK Annual Population Survey 2019. Most occupy professional roles in the services and hospitality industries – which includes social work, accommodation, and food services. 

Other attractive destinations are Canada and Brunei, with these countries appealing to Malaysians in healthcare, engineering, information technology and academia. 

The challenge: retaining skills for growth

With more Malaysians looking for work abroad amid a weakened ringgit, the country’s recovery could be in jeopardy. Malaysia would lose the very skills required for innovation and growth. Sectors like oil, gas and energy, financial services, information and communications technology, healthcare and business services, which demand high levels of education and expertise, could hollow out over time – these are industries where Malaysia cannot afford to lose ground. 

The Malaysian authorities know this and set up the Returning Expert Programme in 2001, facilitated since by Talent Corporation Malaysia Berhad, to bring back high-skilled talents across major sectors. By September 2022, almost 4,200 had returned under the programme, comprising high-value professionals and technical experts.

But stemming brain drain further requires an organised and coordinated national strategy to tackle Malaysia’s structural problems and boost the local job market, so as to encourage Malaysians living overseas to invest or return home after gaining useful experience. The overall goal must be to restore confidence in the Malaysian economy.

To retain top talent, Malaysia needs to cultivate an environment that supports innovation and research, yet more than four in 10 Malaysia-based CEOs say they are uncertain about their companies’ long-term viability, according to PwC’s 27th Annual Global CEO survey. 

Indeed, while the World Bank predicts Malaysia is on track to become a high-income and developed economy by 2028, a 2021 report sheds light on key areas where it falls behind high-income OECD countries: labour compensation, tax collection, spending on social protection, environmental management and control of corruption. The World Bank further prescribes reforms to revitalise long-term growth by investing in human capital, improving the creation of good jobs and modernising the investment ecosystem. 

The weakened ringgit is a wake-up call for Malaysia to address its economic shortcomings – even if the attraction of working abroad will always loom large for mobile Malaysians seeking greener pastures.

Chia Wai Mun is associate professor of economics at the School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University.

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dietebtlates

It has been nearly eight years since we declared a war on diabetes. The campaign came with good reason: Diabetes affects one in every nine Singaporeans and it is estimated that nearly one million Singaporeans could be living with diabetes by 2050.

Since then, significant efforts have been made to address the health issue that continues to affect many. The initiatives aimed to foster a whole-of-society approach to alleviate the burden of diabetes and promote health as people age.

In 2021, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said that the Republic had made progress in its war on diabetes, but obesity and insufficient physical activity were still problems.

Over the years, national initiatives such as Healthier SG and the Healthy 365 app have played a significant role in disseminating awareness and knowledge about preventing and managing pre-diabetes. These platforms focus on diabetes prevention strategies such as healthy eating, physical activity and weight management.

However, as a specialist in diabetes care, I have observed how, in our fast-paced environment, managing diabetes effectively has become a challenge for many.

Problems range from finding it hard to stick to a healthy diet, to fear over the pricks to monitor blood sugar levels.

Challenges in managing diabetes

A diabetes diagnosis can be categorised as either Type-1 or Type-2. The former is an autoimmune disease where the immune system attacks and destroys the insulin-producing cells. In Type-2, individuals can produce insulin, but their bodies are unable to use it to break down glucose effectively, leading to abnormal blood sugar levels.

Diabetic patients often worry about complications such as heart attack, stroke, kidney failure, blindness or leg amputations.

They speak of the emotional burden, the anxiety of needles and the pressure of daily glucose monitoring. This fear can lead to chronic stress, making it even more challenging to manage the condition effectively.

One of my patients, a single mother, grapples daily with the demanding task of balancing her professional duties and family obligations. Despite her best efforts, she finds it difficult to consistently monitor and manage her diabetes and this led to a poorly controlled diabetes condition that exposes her to future risks of complications.

This is not uncommon and highlights a significant issue in diabetes care: the balancing act of personal life, work commitments and health management.

Individuals often prioritise work and family over personal health, leading to irregular glucose monitoring and failing to adhere to dietary and medication guidelines.

This can lead to poorly controlled diabetes, increasing the risk of complications such as neuropathy, retinopathy and cardiovascular issues.

A diabetes diagnosis is also more than just a medical condition to manage – it can trigger an emotional spiral that affects individuals and their loved ones.

Support-driven approach

An international study designed to identify the attitudes, wishes and needs among people living with diabetes –known as the Dawn (Diabetes Attitudes, Wishes and Needs) study – found that only 18 per cent of patients believe they are successfully managing their diabetes as recommended by their doctors.

Adapting to diabetes also means making changes to diets – a departure from beloved food.

Navigating life after a diabetes diagnosis is a complex journey that requires not just personal strength, but also the collective support of family and community.

This often means reshaping one’s identity and reshuffling priorities.

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Managing diabetes extends beyond the courage and determination of the person living with the disease. It’s more effective when family and friends get involved in supporting the patient through the journey.

I’ve witnessed how such support has made significant impact on patients.

A teenager under my care, initially overwhelmed by the complexities of managing his diabetes, found immense support in his family’s dedicated involvement.

The journey was heartening to witness – his father became a steadfast presence, accompanying him to every doctor’s visit, while his mother embraced the challenge of cooking nutritious, diabetes-friendly meals that the whole family enjoyed.

There was significant improvement in both the boy’s health and his self-assurance in handling his condition, highlighting the profound impact of family support on health outcomes.

In Singapore, this sense of teamwork extends to community groups and healthcare providers working together to help those living with diabetes. Organisations like Diabetes Singapore and Touch Community services offer valuable resources, support groups and a network of care.

As a healthcare provider, it is imperative to recognise the real-life constraints of patients.

It’s not merely about prescribing medication or recommending lifestyle changes but understanding the personal factors that make diabetes management a daunting task.

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Tech-driven approach

Technological advancements have simplified various aspects of life, including personal healthcare. Consumer-grade tech applications are now available to help individuals track a variety of health signals such as cholesterol levels, blood pressure and calories burnt. But it doesn’t end there.

While most Singaporeans, particularly the younger, tech-savvy generation, are familiar with wearable devices such as Fitbit and Apple watches, healthcare technology has extended far beyond the functions that these have to offer.

But when it comes to managing a complex condition like diabetes, relying solely on consumer-grade apps and wearables for glucose monitoring can pose risks as the data may not be as precise or dependable as required for medical purposes.

There are now medical-grade wearable devices such as real-time Continuous Glucose Monitoring (rtCGM) systems transforming the landscape of diabetes care.

The device involves a discreet, wireless sensor placed just beneath the skin which provides users with glucose readings every five minutes, transmitted via Bluetooth to a compatible smart device.

A study found that such rtCGM devices have helped patients improve their average blood sugar levels as they are now more informed and equipped to make timely decisions based on real-time data at their fingertips. This is particularly beneficial for vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly, as it enables caregivers to respond swiftly to any health risks or emergencies.

I have had first-hand insight into the potential benefits of such advanced technologies for patients in working with companies in the healthcare sector such as Dexcom, agencies such as the Health Promotion Board and healthcare providers such as National University Hospital (NUH).

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The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in diabetes management is another key development. Given the vast amount of data involved, AI has become a game changer in unlocking predictive capabilities that lead to more precise prognostic insights and the facilitation of personalised care.

In diabetes, AI can help in understanding how patients react to different trigger foods that can affect blood sugar levels, as individual responses can vary widely based on genetics, metabolism, insulin sensitivity and overall health.

For instance, the “virtual fork” is one technology that leverages AI algorithms to track what is being consumed and how one’s body reacts.

By collecting and analysing data on dietary habits and bodily reactions, the virtual fork such as the one offered by Singapore-based digital healthcare company Witz-U guides people with diabetes towards making informed and tailored choices for their specific health needs and goals.

It enables users to upload a photograph of their meal, after which, through the combined efforts of AI and a team of health coaches, specific ingredients that might be causing fluctuations in glucose levels are flagged.

This approach isn’t just about cutting out certain foods; it’s about finding what works best for your body, making managing diabetes a bit easier and a lot more personalised.

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From reactive to proactive

While we are unable to reverse diabetes, adopting a healthier lifestyle can prevent or help manage pre-diabetes.

This can involve maintaining a healthy body weight with a BMI of 18.5 to 22.9 (for Asians), consuming a balanced diet rich in fruit, vegetables and whole grains, and low in fats and sugar. It also involves regular physical activity of 150 minutes of moderate-intensity aerobic activity a week.

Unlike Type-2 diabetes, lifestyle changes cannot prevent Type-1 diabetes. But for those who receive this diagnosis, living a fulfilling life remains within reach by getting support from those around us and leveraging the tech that surrounds us.

As we continue to confront the challenges of diabetes, it is time to shift care from being reactive to proactive, from general to personal.

Dr Kevin Tan is a consultant in diabetes, endocrinology and internal medicine, and vice-president and past president of Diabetes Singapore. 

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overpaid salesman

Social media influencers are often viewed as glamorous figures, effortlessly raking in fame and fortune with a smartphone in hand. Yet, beneath the surface lies a reality obscured by filters and carefully curated lifestyles. 

As the influencer marketing industry in South-east Asia skyrockets, the fact is, the influencer is essentially a salesman, orchestrating a business behind the scenes.

The story of 22-year-old Mr Joshua Chua paints a picture of the allure of influencer life. With over half a million subscribers on YouTube, Mr Chua (@squashyboy), who makes videos about custom keyboards, is living the dream. He has even enjoyed a sponsored trip to Germany and worked with lucrative, recognisable brands.

Mr Chua has no plans for applying for a conventional full-time job when he finishes national service. For now, he is drawn by the allure of a life based around his interests, and wants to focus on monetising his online presence. This means creating content that in turn creates a target audience to sell goods and services to. 

And yet, while career influencers are lauded as modern-day celebrities, the gritty reality is that they have to navigate the complexities of marketing and persuasion, and the particular challenges of doing this in the digital age. Above all, influencers like Mr Chua must ask themselves: How comfortable are you with selling? 

How they make their money

Successful influencing boils down to follower count and engagement levels. A decent influencer must cultivate diverse revenue streams that include affiliate marketing, selling spin-off digital products and partnerships with brands. 

Those with smaller but highly engaged follower bases of 1,000 to 10,000 – the nano influencers – rely on their deep connections with niche audiences to promote products through affiliate links. Micro-influencers, with larger followings of 10,000 to 100,000, cultivate larger loyal communities, making them attractive partners for brands seeking endorsements.

Macro influencers, boasting significant reach – 100,000 to one million – command substantial earnings per post and can leverage on their influence to sell digital products like ebooks or online courses. Earnings per post range from $500 to $10,000, depending on their reach and influence. 

Mid-tier influencers fall in between, earning from $75 to over $3,000 per post, translating to an estimated monthly income of $4,000 to $6,000.

On average, influencers in Singapore earn $58,413 a year, according to Campus Magazine, highlighting the lucrative nature of the influencer industry. The influencer marketing industry here was predicted to hit US$93 million (S$124 million) in 2023. That same figure for South-east Asia for 2024 is US$2.59 billion.

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The challenges of being head of sales

To thrive in the influencer industry, individuals must possess a unique blend of skills, including authenticity, creativity and adaptability. Influencers act as the chief executive and head of sales of their personal brands. 

There are similarities between the anxieties of influencer life and traditional sales roles, such as the need to secure deals and meet performance targets. 

In the influencer context, sales involve cold-calling to get more brands to work with them. 

This is a challenge for influencers who see sales as something uncomfortable and “icky”. To some, selling publicly looks desperate. They’d rather have their work speak for itself. The idea that they have to find sponsors or promote their work to see monetary results is not something they can digest easily.  

Yet, the reality is that like traditional salesmen, influencers need to be both compelling storytellers and strong negotiators, collaborating with brands and negotiating partnerships. Clinching a deal requires an understanding of the value of their platform, creativity over their offerings and ways to establish a mutually beneficial relationship.

Influencers must carefully manage their personal brand and reputation across multiple social media platforms. One wrong move could get them cancelled. PHOTO: AFP

Still, selling online is getting harder. Take social media algorithm changes, which can significantly impact an influencer’s income and reach. If there are changes to how content is filtered, ranked and recommended, this can redirect a follower away from an influencer.  

Overnight, influencers could find themselves without their loyal audience – immediately affecting their appeal to brands they endorse.

Additionally, influencers must continuously adapt their content to meet evolving audience preferences, adding to the pressure to maintain relevance and engagement.

Yet, unlike traditional salesmen who represent a specific company or product, influencers must carefully manage their personal brand and reputation across multiple platforms. They bear the burden of mass scrutiny and criticism, as their every move is subject to public opinion and social media backlash. One wrong move, word or friend could get them cancelled.

Influencers also lack the job security and benefits associated with traditional employment, adding to the uncertainty of their career path.

This, coupled with the unpredictability of revenue streams, creates income anxiety. Indeed, Mr Chua said he faces this worry when his content doesn’t hit a certain mark within the first few hours of a post. 

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Promoting yourself

Influencers face ethical quandaries in navigating the blurred lines between promotion and authenticity. Instances of influencers peddling questionable products or promoting sketchy investments highlight the moral complexities inherent in the industry. 

Trust is the currency influencers trade in. After all, people say relatability and authenticity are the top two traits they look out for in following fashion influencers, according to a 2024 McKinsey 2024 consumer survey.

To tackle these situations, influencers have to ensure the promoted product or service aligns with their personal brand values. This is difficult if sponsored partnerships are a primary source of income and brands want a say in how their products are marketed.

Influencers avoid this conundrum by looking for their own deals instead of relying on partnerships to come to them. Influencer Siuli Wee, marketing and partnerships head at marketing agency SpoonX, deals with all levels of influencers. She notes that one way to get better-suited partnerships is to do digital door-knocking with desired clients and brands.

Yet even this is getting harder. On most platforms, you can send direct messages to followers. But messages to accounts that do not follow you might require the recipient to accept your request first. The chance of this increases if you personalise messages to intended recipients, even if you do not actually know them.

Reinforcing one’s personal brand can help. Some, like content creator Jingjin Liu and career strategist Adrian Choo, have turned to LinkedIn and other platforms outside the usual Instagram, Facebook and TikTok to connect with a business audience.

Ms Liu, the CEO and founder of education platform ZaZaZu, went to LinkedIn after her content pieces around sexual well-being and female empowerment were banned on Facebook and Instagram. LinkedIn has a dedicated editorial team that looks into the context of the content and weighs reports of inappropriate content, before deciding to take these down, instead of relying heavily on automated technology. On LinkedIn, she touched on the topic and talked about it from a women’s rights perspective while challenging the traditional norms around it. Her follower count has since ballooned to a fan base of 25,000.

LinkedIn, as a social media platform set up initially for people to establish professional networks, share their CVs and find their next job, lends itself better to business development and thought leadership – where influencers sell themselves. Indeed, Ms Liu and Mr Choo use LinkedIn to forge meaningful connections with decision-makers and showcase their expertise in specific industries. 

Micro-influencers like them are emerging as a powerful force, wielding influence over niche communities. They have a smaller but more energetic base. Their ability to cultivate connections with their audience makes them increasingly sought after by brands, challenging the dominance of mega influencers. However, because LinkedIn has a professional networking emphasis, one challenge is being able to monetise content, which is less an issue with other platforms.

Let’s face it, influencing is about selling. Little surprise, then, that when I asked Mr Chua if he would consider moving into a full-time sales role after national service, he said that he was open to the idea, although he hadn’t given it deep thought.

Vivek Iyyani is founder of Millennial Minds, an agency that helps organisations to recruit and retain youth, and the author of Marketing To Millennials.

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st overcompetitive

Forum writer Tristan Gwee cautioned against over-reliance on the Government (Guard against over-reliance on the state, March 14).

But I applaud the Government’s efforts to help Singaporeans (Support measures in Budget 2024 not meant to increase S’poreans’ reliance on Government: DPM Heng, March 11).

Singapore is a competitive society. Suppose every Singaporean is in a race. Regardless of how fast everybody is running, someone will come in first and another person will come in last. 

If we translate the race as one based on income, someone will be at the top of the income ladder while another person will be at the bottom. For the person who ends up at the bottom, it may not be due to a lack of trying.

With the current structure of Singapore society, someone will inevitably be at the bottom. This is where the Singapore Government comes in to help this person to live a dignified, decent life.

This is what an inclusive society is about.

Tommy Wong Sai Wai (Dr)

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wage revival

That loud sound emanating from Tokyo is Japanese workers popping the champagne over finally getting the biggest wage increase in 33 years.

The 5.28 per cent wage bump that Japan’s largest trade union grouping, known as Rengo, announced on March 15 ends decades of disappointing shunto or spring wage talks, which take place annually in March.

At one level, Rengo’s agreement with Japan Inc will determine pay and working conditions for giants like Toyota Motor, Panasonic, Nippon Steel and myriad others for the new fiscal year starting in April.

But much higher national interests are in play here and as potential economic inflection points go, this could be a big one.

This year’s round carried the highest stakes in decades as record corporate profits collide with a fast-shrinking labour force and worker discontent over rising inflation. 

The impact of the wage rise is also critical to getting Japan out of its economic doldrums.

Since December 2012, when the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power, a succession of leaders have pledged to generate a “virtuous cycle” of pay gains to enliven household spending and defeat deflation once and for all, with little to show for it.

Will the biggest wage boost since 1991 break the spell?

The implications are already rippling through the world’s third-largest economy. The increase could give the Bank of Japan (BOJ) greater confidence to push interest above zero as soon as early this week. It also could help Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government get approval ratings above 20 per cent.

It’s only just begun

Yet it’s best to keep some of those champagne bottles on ice. For this is not the end of Japan’s revival. It’s just the beginning.

A lost-in-translation dynamic tends to bedevil overseas economists analysing Japan. Among the biggest: the relatively limited portion of the labour market that is, in theory, subject to shunto negotiations.

Only about 16 per cent of Japanese workers are formally unionised.

In 2023, for example, there was rapturous excitement following news of a negotiated 3.58 per cent wage boost.

“But as the months passed, it was clear that the 84 per cent of employees who are not unionised got substantially less,” says Mr Richard Katz, author of the new book The Contest For Japan’s Economic Future.

It hardly helped that “real” wages adjusted for rising inflation actually declined in 2023.

The hope is that the five most dangerous words in economics – “things are different this time” – will ring true in 2024 and beyond.

Japan Inc’s gambit is that the wage boom zeitgeist surrounding this year’s shunto talks will have a catalysing effect on the broader business scene.

Top-down Japan loves a precedent. That’s why Toyota’s announcement last week, two days ahead of the shunto results, that it would hike wages the most in decades received major coverage.

Trickle-down economics doesn’t work in Japan, a lesson that marred the legacy of Mr Shinzo Abe’s 2012-2020 premiership. But trickle-down corporate shame often does.

Will this year’s results shame the broader corporate system, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that employ 70 per cent of Japanese, to hike wages, too?

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Can SMEs do the same?

Encouraging SMEs to boost wages via tax incentives is a particular priority.

“Where there is some scepticism and concern is the ability of SMEs to catch up,” says Ms Izumi Devalier, head of Japan economics at Bank of America.

“They have lower power, so the increase in labour costs is something that’s much more difficult to absorb. We need SMEs to be stronger because they represent about 70 per cent of employment.”

The key here, Ms Devalier says, is for Tokyo to “encourage more investments into labour-saving capital expenditures at the SMEs and the big firms too”. It remains an open question, she adds, “whether they could really implement improvements in efficiency”.

When Tokyo launched “Abenomics” 11-plus years ago, the plan was to fire three policy arrows in unison to slay deflation and reawaken Japan’s animal spirits.

Only the first arrow – monetary easing – was fully deployed. The second – assertive fiscal loosening – never quite got aloft.

The third and most important – structural reform – still largely remains in the quiver.

Sure, Mr Abe’s government introduced steps to strengthen corporate governance. Those upgrades, along with zero rates and Japan’s safe-haven status in a chaotic world, propelled the Nikkei index to 34-year highs.

Average wages, not so much. Until recently, workers’ pay in Japan had been virtually flat for more than a quarter-century.

A few shocks since the early 1990s paved the way for the compensation winter to come.

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China’s role in Japan’s wage woes

First was the trauma from the collapse of Japan’s 1980s “bubble economy” around 1990. Then came the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, during which then 100-year-old Yamaichi Securities collapsed.

But the biggest shock was China’s arrival as a regional economic superpower.

China’s rubber-hitting-the-road momentum was its 2001 entry into the World Trade Organisation. Since then, China has steadily transformed the global trade system to its benefit.

No economic model has been shaken more fully than Japan’s. In 2002, fear of losing business and competitiveness to low-cost China saw Toyota, Japan’s biggest company, refuse any pay scale increases despite having enjoyed record profits.

Toyota had always been a compensation trendsetter. Its no-wage-increase stance gave other behemoths political cover not to fatten pay cheques.

It also led to unions lowering their sights – and their demands.

Many, unwittingly or not, became tools of government wage suppression, turning shunto season into a “go through the motions” enterprise. This dynamic paved the way for over two decades of wage stagnation.

China’s competitive threat also helped catalyse the “informalisation” of Japan’s labour market.

Since the early 2000s, the number of so-called “non-regular” workers grew rapidly. Today, they make up 37 per cent of Japan’s workforce. Typically, non-regular staff don’t get the shunto rate.

This dynamic is slowly but surely denting Japan’s claim to being a uniquely egalitarian Group of Seven economy.

The disconnect between a stock market trading near 1989 highs and the majority of households not seeing a notable raise in eons widened the gap between the haves and have-nots.

All this has Mr Kishida’s team prodding non-union companies to offer pay rises in excess of 5 per cent. Only time will tell if he succeeds.

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Challenges ahead

Mr Kishida’s team must also act fast to incentivise increased productivity to avoid a sudden and giant surge in “demand-pull” inflation.

Thanks to a chronically weak yen and elevated global energy and food prices, Japan is awash in “cost-push” inflation.

Tokyo’s consumer prices rose at a 2.5 per cent year-on-year pace in February. Without urgent efforts to increase worker efficiency, the shunto increase could boost inflation rapidly.

The record is not reassuring. Sadly, one LDP government after another have chosen to muddle along, year after year, rather than implement much-needed reforms to make the economy more dynamic, Mr Abe’s especially.

His plans to cut bureaucracy, loosen labour markets, rekindle innovation, empower women and restore Tokyo’s place as Asia’s financial hub fell by the wayside in favour of aggressive BOJ stimulus.

Trouble is, the yen’s plunge since March 2013, when the BOJ supersized quantitative easing, did more harm than good. It took the onus off Cabinet ministers and lawmakers to raise Japan’s economic game.

The BOJ’s largesse freed many chief executives of pressure to recalibrate or reimagine industries and take risks.

Now, as the BOJ steps towards normalising rates, economists are mixed on whether the financial system is ready to live without BOJ cash.

This has some economists fearing the impermanence of this year’s wage gain. Despite the Nikkei 225’s epic rally this year, Japan barely avoided recession at the end of 2023. In January, household spending plunged 6.3 per cent from a year earlier, the sharpest drop in 35 months.

As Nobel laureate Milton Friedman argued, wage bumps transform consumer attitudes only if workers trust there are more to come, year after year.

The key here, says Mr Masashi Jimbo, president of the Japanese Electrical, Electronic and Information Union, is that “we must not make this wage hike just a one-off thing”.

Mr Kishida claims he’s determined to ensure just that. But his actions will speak much louder than words. Let’s start by putting some of that champagne back in the refrigerator.

The real heavy lifting is only just beginning.

William Pesek is a Tokyo-based journalist and the author of Japanisation: What The World Can Learn From Japan’s Lost Decades. 

location worse for actual work done

Work would be so much better if you could get work done. It has always been hard to focus amid the staccato rhythms of meetings, the relentless accumulation of messages, or the simple distraction of colleagues thundering past. But since the Covid-19 pandemic, every single place of work has become less conducive to concentration.

Start with the home office. The promise of hybrid working is that you can now choose your location, depending on the task at hand. If you need to focus on work, you can now skip the commute, stay home and get your head down. This tactic would have worked well in 2019, when no one else was ever at home. Now, there are likely to be other people there, too, grabbing the best spot for the Wi-Fi, merrily eating your lunch and talking loudly to a bunch of colleagues in their own workplaces. Home has become a co-working space but without any of the common courtesies.

Even if none of your family or flatmates is at home, they now know you might be. That spells disaster. Parcels are delivered with monotonous regularity; large chunks of the day are spent being photographed on your own doorstep holding intriguing packages that are not for you. Children who want food or money know where to track you down.

Worst of all, jobs that once required a day off can now be done at no personal cost by booking them in for days when someone else is at home. “Are you going in today?” might sound like an innocuous question. It should put you on high alert. It means that a bunch of people with drills will storm the house just as you settle down to the laptop.

One natural response is to head to the place you were trying to avoid – the office. But its role has changed since the pandemic. It was never a great place for concentrating (the periods of lockdown were glorious exceptions). But it has become even less suitable, now that the office is seen as the place where collaboration and culture-building happen.

Before, you might have been able to sit in a cubicle, fenced off from other people; now openness is in vogue, which means fewer partitions and greater visibility. Before, you might have had a normal chair and a desk; now you will be asked to wobble awkwardly on a tall stool at a champagne bar. Before, you were interrupted; now you are being given an opportunity to interact. There is much more emphasis on meetings, brainstorming, drinking, eating, bouncing around on space-hoppers or whatever appalling activity builds team spirit. There is much less emphasis on single-minded attention.

Home is heaving, the office is off-putting. What about other places, like co-working spaces and coffee shops? These too have got worse since the pandemic, for two reasons. First, there is more competition for spaces. Everyone else who is finding it hard to concentrate has had exactly the same idea of heading to a third location.

Second, online meetings have made it acceptable to reach everyone everywhere. It used to be said that you are never more than six feet away from a rat; now the same is true of a Zoom call. Wherever you are – homes, offices, cafes, libraries, monasteries – someone is within earshot, yapping away about something that manages to be both tedious and impossible to ignore: the plight of local papers in Maine, the risk calculations behind Solvency 2 or why Denise is so impossible to work with.

There are ways around the concentration problem. One is to become richer: everything is so much easier if you have another wing of the house, or indeed another house. Another is deliberately to swim against the hybrid tide: if Monday is the day when most people work from home in order to focus, the office is going to be a better place to work that day. The most common and least healthy answer is to defer focused work until the evenings and weekends.

This is not a lament for the pre-pandemic world. Just because each location has got worse as a place to do focused work does not mean that things have got worse overall. Hybrid work allows people to pick the most appropriate locations for specific tasks.

The option of occasionally staying at home, even if home is noisier than it was before 2020, is still better for many workers and employers than the pre-Covid norm of coming into the office every day.

But wherever you are, other people are more likely to be there or to have a greater expectation of interacting with you. The ability to concentrate is sold as a benefit of flexibility. It can be the price you pay for it. © 2024 THE ECONOMIST NEWSPAPER LIMITED. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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struggling w revision

The article about the struggles of Primary 6 pupils in preparing for the PSLE, one of the biggest checkpoints of Singapore’s education system, resonated with me (Your kids aren’t lazy; they just don’t know how to revise independently, March 10).

It is heartening to see it acknowledged that a child who is grappling with the uncertainty of how to kick-start a successful revision process is not a lazy child.

Many students are confronted with heaps of revision materials and not enough time, which ultimately demoralises them. As students start feeling overwhelmed and fall behind their peers, they would inevitably feel inferior and might give up totally on their studies. 

I think parents play a crucial role in supporting their children by guiding them to take ownership of their learning and helping them to move towards independent study.

Students can also benefit from being taught revision techniques and time management skills. 

I hope to see more students taking the initiative to move towards self-directed learning and grow to be more independent learners.

Chong Xuan Qi, 16

Secondary 4

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quit tok

Ms Gabrielle Judge’s job at a tech company did not end with a whimper, or with a bang, but with a video. It captured a gruelling, and in her words “cringe”, performance review meeting during which she told her managers she was leaving.

Ms Judge, who had been doing the job alongside a part-time career as a content creator, posted a truncated version of the online meeting on social media under the moniker “Anti Work Girlboss”. The aim, she says, was to show viewers she had walked away from the low-pressure and relatively well-paid role after her employer began laying off her team and giving her extra tasks.

The very public resignation became a viral hit among young workers, many of whom were also feeling dissatisfied and undervalued in their posts.

In another video posted on TikTok, Ms Christina Zumbo looks shocked and teary-eyed – “numb”, she says – having just pressed “send” on an e-mail informing her boss she is quitting. The job was making her unhappy, she states, as words of support from her followers stack up below. The recording features a call from HR about her decision – and then Ms Zumbo is free.

Such clips, posted with titles such as “quit my job with me” or the hashtag #layoffseason, are part of a wave of “Quit-Tok” videos that aim to take what would usually be a private chat in a side room with managers and make it as public as possible.

Generation Z workers in particular are posting videos of online calls in which they resign or are made redundant on social media sites like TikTok as they wage a campaign of workplace transparency. Tech workers and teachers are the source of many of the videos, but they have also been posted by blue-collar workers. The vast majority of the people behind them have been women.

“I think Gen Z overall is very sceptical and a little bit nihilist,” Ms Judge told the Financial Times.

One motivation for these company leavers is to boost their own social media presence – some of the videos have been viewed millions of times – but the trend is also a way to expose, and change, what the employees view as poor working conditions or bad treatment by bosses. Some have labelled the craze “loud quitting”, in contrast with the “quiet quitting” trend during the coronavirus pandemic, whereby workers did the minimum possible to keep their jobs.

“It touches on the economic crisis, disbelief in the nine to five... all of those topics that Gen Z care about,” says Ms Shira Jeczmien, chief executive of Screenshot Media, whose 18- to 24-year-old-focused site has featured many such stories.

“Every time we touch it, it is viewed by millions. The lead-up, getting the e-mail, jumping on the call, looking at the computer, you can hear their manager asking questions. It’s huge.”

The workers making the clips typically film themselves on video calls, and their managers on the other end do not know they are being recorded. Others take place inside the workplace. One nine-second clip, for example, features an empty McDonald’s restaurant, supposedly after all the employees had quit en masse. Another, from KennyMan DMV – who does not give his real name – shows him in his blue Walmart uniform angrily telling his manager he will not be stacking shelves any longer before storming out.

There is a risk employees could be challenged for covert filming, but most TikTok users appear unconcerned that their employer would pursue a legal case.

Media observers say the trend is reflective of Gen Z culture: bringing in personal and often emotional responses to show “authenticity”, and taking charge of situations causing anxiety or stress. It also highlights a lack of regard for the sort of long-term corporate ties and hierarchies that older generations may have honoured.

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The effects of the videos are already being felt in tech companies and the human resources (HR) sector. Executives, employment lawyers and outplacement firms – which sometimes carry out redundancies for companies – do not want to become the butt of a viral TikTok video. The trend has forced some employers to up their game when it comes to staff communication and the way they carry out job losses.

Mr Nolan Church, former head of talent at tech company DoorDash, and now chief executive of pay data platform FairComp, says layoff videos have become “an accountability mechanism to ensure people are being treated humanely”.

A wave of tech redundancies has added to a feeling of distrust among workers. According to industry tracker Layoff.fyi, tech companies have made more than 312,000 job cuts since the start of 2023. Redundancies conducted without a manager present, without a proper reason provided, or without severance can be devastating for the people going through them. “Employees feel like the social contract has been broken,” Mr Church says.

He believes the trend has been prompted by the rise of platforms such as Glassdoor and Blind – anonymous forums where tech workers can discuss their company and pay.

While post-pandemic trends such as hybrid working have prompted some companies to more closely monitor staff, TikTok layoff videos may be turning workplace surveillance back on management.

“I think the next evolution of this is somebody having an iPhone running all day long as they talk to their manager,” adds Mr Church.

In one widely shared video, Brittany Pietsch filmed herself being fired as an account executive from Cloudflare after just three months. Ms Pietsch – having heard from her co-workers what was happening – filmed the call with an HR executive and another director who told her that having “finished our evaluations of 2023 performance, this is where you have not met Cloudflare expectations for performance. We have decided to part ways with you”.

She spent the rest of the clip arguing with the pair over her performance.

The post forced Mr Matthew Prince, chief executive of Cloudflare, to respond on social media platform X, saying “clearly we were far from perfect” and that the video was “painful for me to watch”. He added: “Any healthy (organisation) needs to get the people who aren’t performing off. That wasn’t the mistake here. The mistake was not being more kind and humane as we did.”

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Ms Ann Francke, chief executive of the Chartered Management Institute, says the videos can be a “wake-up call to leaders about potential management shortcomings”.

“Younger employees are much more likely to be open and transparent about how they view their employer.”

But that can also bring risks for the worker. “Any employee who badmouths their employer publicly could find themselves viewed as a ‘troublemaker’, which might affect their future employment chances,” Ms Francke adds.

“My advice is to be aware of the potential consequences, no matter which side of the camera you’re on.”

But have employees gained any tangible advantage from these posts? Mr Church says the videos are having an effect on redundancy processes, prompting more thoughtful communication and, in some cases, better severance.

But Ms Lindsay Witcher, global managing director at outplacement firm Randstad RiseSmart, says some organisations are distancing themselves from the redundancy process, or serving notices in writing to avoid potential reputational risks. “It remains shocking to me how little attention companies put in the planning and execution of a layoff.”

She argues employers should spend the same amount of resources on laying off staff as they do recruiting them. Time spent planning the process, adequate severance packages and helping employees find new jobs can bring advantages for companies.

If redundancies are done well, former employees can be strong advocates for the company throughout their career, says Ms Witcher.

And crucially, a bungled job termination can also have a strong impact on the morale of the remaining workforce – particularly those who are asked to step up their own productivity after others lose their jobs.

Ms Witcher is hopeful TikTok videos will prompt a bigger shift. “I hope it forces companies’ hands a little bit and moves the needle on the practices and the benefits they give people.” FINANCIAL TIMES

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unicorn in sg

SINGAPORE – JP Morgan is expanding its commercial banking office in Singapore with an aim of identifying and doing business with unicorn companies here, as it looks beyond the US for new opportunities to grow, a senior executive at the bank said.

Unicorns are privately held start-ups that have achieved a valuation of US$1 billion (S$1.37 billion) or more. Half the world’s unicorns are outside the United States, and many are in Asia, with around 20 in Singapore, Mr Doug Petno, chief executive officer of JP Morgan’s commercial banking business, told The Straits Times in a recent interview.

Mr Petno was in Singapore to oversee an acceleration of JP Morgan’s efforts to build up the commercial banking business here.

He said: “We’re expanding to serve new economy and innovation companies here. There is growing venture capital formation for these start-ups happening, and we see this as a compelling opportunity. We’re now ensuring we have enough bankers here to serve these companies.”

The largest US bank’s interest in Singapore is underpinned by the robust talent pool here, as well as the favourable economic and political environment for start-ups to thrive, Mr Petno said.

Home to around 4,000 technology start-ups and more than 220 incubators, Singapore now has 18 unicorns, more than four times the global average of four, according to the latest global industry study by US research firm Startup Genome released in July.

Some Singapore start-ups that have achieved unicorn status include logistics provider Ninja Van, online consumer marketplace Carousell, payment services company Nium, used-car platform Carro, patent database PatSnap and gaming chair-maker Secret Lab.

Singapore is ranked among the world’s top 10 start-up and venture capital hubs, alongside Silicon Valley, New York and London, with a start-up ecosystem valued at US$128 billion, the study showed.

An ecosystem is defined as a shared pool of resources, generally located within a 100km radius in a given region, and cities were ranked on their performance, funding, market reach, connectedness, talent and expertise, and knowledge.

JP Morgan started moving into the Singapore start-up space earlier in 2023, after the collapse of several smaller US banks such as Silicon Valley Bank, which focused on start-ups.

“With Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, we accelerated our investment serving this market, not only in the US but also globally, to build a banking business for the innovation economy, serving the venture capital firms and their start-ups and founders,” Mr Petno said.

The move is also strategic for JP Morgan, he added. “As each start-up matures, we can help it access capital at every stage and provide support towards an eventual listing or sale of the company.”

This would yield potential business opportunities for JP Morgan’s investment banking arm, while its private banking arm could also benefit from serving the founders of these start-ups, said Mr Petno.

Mr Doug Petno, CEO of J.P. Morgan’s commercial banking business, said that half the world’s unicorn start-ups are outside the US, and many are in Asia. PHOTO: J.P. MORGAN

JP Morgan’s move to serve non-US companies overseas is part of a wider strategy mooted in 2019 to grow its commercial banking business, which currently contributes just around 15 per cent to the bank’s overall earnings.

Mr Petno said the commercial bank is better able to support its overseas clients that want to expand into new markets than some local banks due to its presence across multiple markets globally.

“Now, we’re adding banking resources to cover Singapore-based businesses, as the best companies really feel like they have to be here in a meaningful way,” he said.

This is because the Republic is a hub for many businesses to oversee expansion across South-east Asia. Also, more companies are diversifying their supply chains into the region, and many are setting up a base in Singapore to manage this.

The bank’s plans to expand overseas also come amid expectations that US earnings will soon normalise under pressure to raise rates paid to depositors.

US-listed JP Morgan in October reported a 36 per cent jump in profits for the third quarter due to higher lending rates and lower-than-normal loan losses. The bank said that net income climbed to US$13.2 billion, from US$9.7 billion in 2022. 

Big banks such as JP Morgan are perceived to be safer and more secure than smaller ones and, as a result, have been able to charge more for loans over the past 18 months, even as they benefited from a higher number of depositors.

Still, the biggest US banks have warned that they will eventually have to offer higher rates to depositors as competition intensifies, and this would eat into the higher profits generated from higher interest rates.

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CEO jp morg9n

In 1983, Daniel Pinto, then a 19-year-old student in Buenos Aires, joined a bank to work as a financial analyst by day so he could fund his studies in accountancy at university in the evenings. He never left the profession and has risen through its ranks to become the president and chief operating officer of the biggest bank in the world.

If JP Morgan’s iconic CEO Jamie Dimon departs any time soon, Mr Pinto, 61, will become acting CEO in the short term. He has been a JP Morgan lifer in the sense that he has spent his entire 41-year banking career in institutions that became part of JP Morgan, including Manufacturers Hanover, Chemical Bank and Chase Manhattan Bank. Vastly experienced, he has done just about everything there is to do in banking, from being a forex trader to managing client sales, to overseeing the fixed income, treasury and emerging market businesses, to running JP Morgan’s corporate and investment bank.

With some 320,000 employees spread across over 60 countries, JP Morgan dwarfs its big-bank peers in terms of assets, deposits, revenues and profits and has a market capitalisation of US$548 billion (S$736 billion) as at March 15, which exceeds those of Bank of America and Citibank combined.

Mr Pinto co-manages the bank with Mr Dimon. “We get together once a week and discuss what he is going to do and what I am going to do,’’ he says during our interview last week in a lounge at JP Morgan’s top floor offices in CapitaSpring. “We work on all the lines of the business which are strategically important.”

Focusing on areas of weakness, not strength

Known to be a perfectionist, Mr Pinto says he spends 90 per cent of his time not on things that the bank is doing well, but what it needs to improve.

“When you look at all the things we do, we’re up there, at No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3.”

But even where the bank is No. 1 in a certain area, that is an average score covering all the activities of that area.

“Averages are not good for companies,” he says. “So, what you want to focus on is not that you’re No. 1 on average, but on each of the components that bring you to that position.

“For example, we’ve been the No. 1 investment bank globally for many years. But we’re not No. 1 in every sector of investment banking, or every region, or every country.

“In payments, we made massive progress in the last several years, but in the merchant acquiring business and small business, we still need to grow.

“We also need to grow the multi-party commerce business, particularly outside the United States.

“So, it’s about looking at things like that – sectors or segments where we might not be No. 1,” he says, “focusing on improving in those areas and not feeling too good about the average. And that applies to everything”.

Record profits and revenues

JP Morgan made record profits in 2023 of just under US$50 billion, which was almost 20 per cent of the profits of the entire US banking industry. Mr Pinto claims that this performance is sustainable.

“We’ve been delivering growth in both profits and the top line year in and year out, and we’ve had record revenues for eight years in a row,’’ he says. He points out that in 2023, the bank benefited from deposit inflows being higher and credit delinquencies being lower than expected. He adds that those trends are now normalising, so they may not provide as much of a tailwind in 2024, but other areas are growing, such as payments, retail banking and the credit card business.

Mr Pinto is fairly optimistic about the state of the US economy. “The macro picture is quite okay,” he says. “The economy is slowing down a bit, but it’s still growing. There’s a strong labour market, the consumer is in a good place and corporate debt net of cash is at quite healthy levels.

“If inflation continues to come down to 2.5 per cent by the end of the year, it’s very likely that we will have a soft landing and a recession will be postponed for the next two or three years. In that scenario, the market is pricing in three to four interest rate cuts starting in June.”

For most of the bank’s business, the net effect of lower interest rates won’t be much, he says. He acknowledges that deposit margins – the difference between the interest the bank earns on its loans and what it pays on deposits – will come down.

“Historically, deposit margins in the industry have been around 2 per cent. We are now short of 3 per cent and that should normalise over time,’’ he says. “But other areas will grow to compensate.”

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Nor is Mr Pinto much concerned about the stresses in the US banking system that led to the collapse in 2023 of regional banks such as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank that caused depositor flight from First Republic Bank, which JP Morgan acquired.

“For US regional banks, the challenge has less to do with stress in the system and more to do with their business models,’’ he points out.

The regional banks have faced higher risks from rising interest rates, lack scale and are exposed to a loss of depositor confidence. Most regional banks have reduced their vulnerabilities, according to Mr Pinto, by borrowing long term and restructuring their portfolios, which has made them less exposed to runs on deposits. But those with assets of less than US$100 billion will face tougher regulation, which means they will need to hold more long-term debt and be recapitalised at higher levels.

So, their business models will need to be adjusted, he says, which will likely happen through consolidation.

Commercial real estate not a systemic issue

A key area of vulnerability for regional banks relates to commercial real estate, particularly in the US office sector, which is badly hit by low occupancy rates and high interest costs. Regional banks have about 85 per cent of the exposure to commercial real estate.

But Mr Pinto points out that the loan to value in this segment is still below 100 per cent. “Some transactions will need to be restructured by bringing in more equity and there will be some foreclosures for sure,’’ he says. “But overall, assuming that interest rates stay at current levels or go lower, which is a more likely scenario, I don’t think it will be a systemic issue. It’s just a challenge.”

JP Morgan emerged bigger from the banking turmoil of 2023, when it acquired the beleaguered First Republic Bank, the latest of its impressive list of acquisitions made during crises, which includes the brokerage firm Bear Stearns in 2008 and Washington Mutual, which was the biggest bank to fail during the financial crisis of that year.

Since it has more than 10 per cent of the deposits of the US banking system, regulations bar it from making further bank acquisitions, except through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which is how it acquired First Republic. So, it has turned to making a host of smaller acquisitions, mainly outside banking, “to cater to areas of opportunity”, according to Mr Pinto.

He explains: “For example, we have a fantastic credit card business in the United States. We saw that we could build offerings around travel services. So, we ended up acquiring CX Loyalty, which is a wholesale version of the booking platform Expedia, and Frosch, a conglomerate of travel agents. So now, we’re delivering more, and better, quality travel services to our US customers.”

In the payments space, it has invested in fintechs, which Mr Pinto considers to be strong competitors. It has also acquired the financial services unit of Volkswagen called VW Pay, which allows car owners to use their vehicle as a wallet to digitally pay for various services such as fuelling and electric vehicle charging.

“Such things would take a lot of time to develop, so it’s more effective to do them through acquisitions,” says Mr Pinto.

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Betting big on tech

Technological transformation, on which JP Morgan spent more than US$15 billion in 2023, is a major priority for the bank and one to which Mr Pinto pays special attention.

The areas on which it especially focuses include tokenisation and distributed ledger technology. In the latter area, it has collaborated with the Monetary Authority of Singapore, DBS Bank, Temasek, Standard Chartered Bank and other institutions in a project called Partior, an interbank payments system using blockchain to improve the speed and lower the costs of cross-border payments.

The bank uses AI extensively, says Mr Pinto – for example, to create trading algorithms, optimise collateral and yield customer insights. It also uses the technology for control-related issues such as fraud detection and surveillance of activities, globally.

To boost efficiencies, it is using generative AI to improve the productivity of its software and product developers, and on the operational side, to help with processes such as know-your-customer, and improving the responsiveness of its call centres.

“What you want is for agents to solve as many problems for clients as possible, or prevent those problems from happening in the first place,’’ he says. “So it’s still early days, but we’re seeing increases in productivity from deploying AI and large language models. They are a game changer for the company.”

Singapore, where JP Morgan has around 4,000 employees, is one of its three main centres in East Asia, together with Hong Kong and Tokyo. It also serves as a technology hub with some 1,600 staff working in that area. “And it’s high-end technology,’’ says Mr Pinto. “We are working in quantum computing, in encryption and everything that relates to distributed ledger technology and AI.”

How the succession to Mr Dimon, 68, as CEO at JP Morgan will play out is a subject of much speculation in banking circles. Among the main contenders, besides Mr Pinto, are Ms Jennifer Piepszak and Mr Troy Rohrbaugh who run the Commercial and Investment Bank and Ms Marianne Lake who runs the retail operations.

Whoever is Mr Dimon’s successor will have to find his or her own leadership style, Mr Pinto says. “The key will be to play to that person’s strengths rather than try to copy what Jamie did, because Jamie is a once-in-a generation personality who cannot be replicated. They will have to find their own style and do what is right for the company at the time rather than do what was right for the company in the past.”